The Pollock Puzzle: Navigating Economics and Sustainability

October 18 2024

The walleye pollock, often overshadowed by more famous fish like cod and salmon, is now a crucial player in the global seafood industry. With its sustainable credentials and versatility, it's used in everything from fish fingers to surimi, making it the most important fish for human consumption. But as this "king of the seas" faces economic and environmental pressures, its future isn't as certain as its current dominance might suggest.

An Ocean of Profit – But at What Cost?

Factory trawling, especially in Russian waters, is incredibly profitable, with margins that rival industries like tobacco. For the walleye pollock industry, especially in Russia and the U.S., these profits come from well-managed fisheries and sustainable quotas. Pollock's massive scale – accounting for a huge portion of global seafood consumption – means that even slight mismanagement could disrupt the delicate balance between profit and sustainability.

But these profits are not without risks. Significant investments in vessel capacity, both in the U.S. and Russia, are increasing costs. While new vessels are more efficient and sustainable, they add financial strain to an industry already grappling with warming waters and shifting fish populations.

Climate Change: A Growing Threat

Climate change is perhaps the most significant threat to the pollock industry. The frequency of marine heatwaves in the Pacific Ocean is increasing, putting additional stress on pollock stocks. Warmer waters are pushing pollock populations northward, with projections suggesting that by 2040, a third of U.S. pollock could migrate into Russian waters.

The near-collapse of pollock stocks in the Central Bering Sea in the late 1980s is a cautionary tale. Overfishing and poor management led to a 99% drop in catches within a decade, and stocks have not fully recovered since. Today, experts warn that walleye pollock populations in both the U.S. and Russia are at risk, with quotas likely to be reduced as early as 2025.

Geopolitics and the Race for Pollock

Geopolitical tensions are adding another layer of complexity. Russia has recently opened up part of the Arctic for pollock fishing, increasing the risk of conflict with the U.S. as fish stocks shift and nations compete for control of key fishing grounds. In 2020, tensions flared when Russian warships conducted exercises near U.S. pollock vessels, highlighting the strategic importance of pollock fisheries to both nations.

China also plays a critical role in the pollock supply chain, processing most of Russia's exports. Disruptions in this supply chain – like the near-closure of China's pollock market to Russian exporters during the COVID-19 pandemic – can have wide-reaching impacts on prices and availability.

A Call to Action

As the world’s largest source of fish for human consumption, ensuring the sustainability of the walleye pollock industry is critical. Industry leaders and regulators must take decisive action to protect this valuable resource. Steps like fleet modernization, reducing bycatch, and adapting to the effects of climate change are essential to maintaining both the profitability and sustainability of pollock fisheries.

Ensuring that quotas are based on the best available science will be key to preventing overfishing. Certification bodies like the Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) must continue to hold fisheries accountable for maintaining sustainable practices. Meanwhile, the industry itself can take a proactive approach by investing in new, more sustainable technologies and by pushing for higher standards of traceability across the entire supply chain.

The pollock industry stands at a crossroads, balancing profitability with sustainability in the face of significant environmental and geopolitical challenges. The choices made today will determine whether pollock continues to be the backbone of the seafood industry, or whether it faces the same fate as other overfished species.